Predicting the Level of Ecological Safety for Man-made Objects

Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska 2023, vol. 25, pp. 235-241

Elena Smirnova¹ Ten adres pocztowy jest chroniony przed spamowaniem. Aby go zobaczyć, konieczne jest włączenie w przeglądarce obsługi JavaScript., Shirali Mamedov¹ , Alexander Shkarovskiy^1,2 

	1. Saint Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Russia 2. Koszalin University of Technology, Poland
	Ten adres pocztowy jest chroniony przed spamowaniem. Aby go zobaczyć, konieczne jest włączenie w przeglądarce obsługi JavaScript.
	https://doi.org/10.54740/ros.2023.024

The authors explored the utilization of simulation models as a means to ensure environmental safety, using the industrial hub of Kemerovo as an illustrative example. The article analyzes the factors that have contributed to the deterioration of the environment in the region for decades. It has been established that in terms of the overall percentage distribution of emissions from stationary sources, energy enterprises (73.0%), chemical and petrochemical industries (4.7%), and black metallurgy enterprises (7.8%) are leading in the city of Kemerovo. Simulation modelling has shown that the cause of high concentrations of harmful substances in the atmosphere of Kemerovo is due to the negative factors of industrial and household activities and their impact on environmental safety. High correlation and sensitivity coefficients indicate a lack of new available technologies in the region's industry and transport that could prevent air pollution. The forecasting model has indicated a potential two, three or even greater increase in emissions. For example, in the long-term perspective, by 2063, manufacturing emissions could potentially increase by 35 times, leading to irreversible ecological consequences. Extreme pollution and depletion of natural resources could make living in this region impossible.

atmospheric pollution, ecological risk, ecological disaster, environmental safety zone, hazardous industries

AMA Style
Smirnova E, Mamedov S, Shkarovskiy A. Predicting the Level of Ecological Safety for Man-made Objects. Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska. 2023; 25. https://doi.org/10.54740/ros.2023.024

ACM Style
Smirnova, E., Mamedov, S., Shkarovskiy, A. 2023. Predicting the Level of Ecological Safety for Man-made Objects. Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska. 25. DOI:https://doi.org/10.54740/ros.2023.024

ACS Style
Smirnova, E.; Mamedov, S.; Shkarovskiy, A. Predicting the Level of Ecological Safety for Man-made Objects Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska 2023, 25, 235-241. https://doi.org/10.54740/ros.2023.024

APA Style
Smirnova, E., Mamedov, S., Shkarovskiy, A. (2023). Predicting the Level of Ecological Safety for Man-made Objects. Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska, 25, 235-241. https://doi.org/10.54740/ros.2023.024

ABNT Style
SMIRNOVA, E.; MAMEDOV, S.; SHKAROVSKIY, A. Predicting the Level of Ecological Safety for Man-made Objects. Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska, v. 25, p. 235-241, 2023. https://doi.org/10.54740/ros.2023.024

Chicago Style
Smirnova, Elena, Mamedov, Shirali, Shkarovskiy, Alexander. 2023. "Predicting the Level of Ecological Safety for Man-made Objects". Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska 25, 235-241. https://doi.org/10.54740/ros.2023.024

Harvard Style
Smirnova, E., Mamedov, S., Shkarovskiy, A. (2023) "Predicting the Level of Ecological Safety for Man-made Objects", Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska, 25, pp. 235-241. doi:https://doi.org/10.54740/ros.2023.024

IEEE Style
E. Smirnova, S. Mamedov, A. Shkarovskiy, "Predicting the Level of Ecological Safety for Man-made Objects", RoczOchrSrod, vol 25, pp. 235-241. https://doi.org/10.54740/ros.2023.024